Australia’s Population Growth Since 2020: How Much Is Coming From Migration?
- Youssef Haddad
- 3 hours ago
- 9 min read
28 August 2026 | Author: Youssef Haddad
Net Overseas Migration versus Natural Population Growth tells an important story about modern Australia
Australia’s population continues to grow, but the headline population figure tells only part of the story. To understand how Australia is actually growing, it is necessary to look at the two principal drivers of national population change: natural increase, being the difference between births and deaths, and Net Overseas Migration (NOM), being the net population effect of people migrating to and from Australia.
The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures reveal a striking demographic reality. Australia is now considerably more dependent upon overseas migration for population growth than it is upon natural increase. This became particularly apparent following the reopening of Australia’s international borders after the COVID-19 pandemic, when Net Overseas Migration surged to unprecedented levels while natural population growth remained comparatively modest..
Importantly, the post-COVID migration surge has already fallen substantially. Nevertheless, the latest available ABS figures show that overseas migration continues to account for approximately three-quarters of Australia’s annual population growth. This raises a much broader question than simply whether Australia’s migration numbers are “high” or “low”: what would Australia’s population growth look like without migration?
Australia’s Population Growth Since 2020
The latest ABS population series provides a remarkable picture of the period from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic through to the end of 2025. The figures below use the ABS’s latest revised population estimates rather than relying on figures originally published in earlier releases, which can subsequently be revised as migration and population data are finalised.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, State and Territory Population, December 2025. Figures in the latest ABS series may differ from figures originally reported in earlier ABS releases because population and migration estimates are subsequently revised.
The trend is unmistakable. Immediately before the full effect of the pandemic, overseas migration was already responsible for more of Australia’s population growth than natural increase. The closure of Australia’s international borders then temporarily turned that relationship upside down. Once the borders reopened, migration rapidly returned and subsequently became responsible for more than 80 per cent of annual population growth at the height of the post-COVID rebound.
COVID-19 Showed What Australia Looks Like Without Migration
The 2020–21 financial year provides perhaps the clearest demonstration of the importance of migration to Australia’s population growth. During this period, Australia’s international borders were largely closed and Net Overseas Migration fell to approximately negative 84,900. This meant that overseas migration was not adding to Australia’s population at all; instead, it was reducing it.
Natural increase moved in the opposite direction. The excess of births over deaths added approximately 139,500 people to the population. Yet despite this natural increase, Australia’s total population grew by only approximately 36,200 people over the year once the other population components and adjustments reflected in the ABS estimates were taken into account.
The pandemic therefore created an unusual demographic experiment. For a short period, Australia effectively experienced what population growth looks like when its normally substantial overseas migration contribution disappears. The result was exceptionally weak population growth.
That experience is important when considering contemporary debates about migration. Australia’s population does not naturally grow at anything approaching the rates seen when significant overseas migration is present. The difference between births and deaths provides positive population growth, but increasingly it is migration that determines the overall pace of Australia’s population expansion.
The Borders Reopened and Migration Rebounded
Australia’s international borders progressively reopened and, from 21 February 2022, most fully vaccinated visa holders could again travel to Australia without requiring an individual travel exemption. Migration consequently began to recover after almost two years of extraordinary restrictions.
By 2021–22, the latest ABS population series records Net Overseas Migration of approximately 207,900, compared with natural increase of approximately 125,400. Migration was once again the larger contributor to population growth.
The extraordinary change occurred during 2022–23. Net Overseas Migration increased to approximately 538,300 while natural increase was only approximately 102,900. Total population growth reached approximately 641,200 people, meaning overseas migration accounted for around 84 per cent of Australia’s population growth during that financial year.
The ABS has explained that this extraordinary period was consistent with a catch-up in migration following almost two years of COVID-related border restrictions. The ABS’s dedicated Overseas Migration release records a financial-year NOM figure of approximately 538,000 for 2022–23 and notes that annual NOM subsequently reached a rolling 12-month peak of approximately 556,000 in the year ending September 2023.
It is therefore important not to interpret the post-pandemic migration surge as though it occurred in ordinary circumstances. It followed an unprecedented period during which normal international movements had been severely disrupted.
Migration Has Already Fallen Substantially
Public discussion can sometimes create the impression that Australia continues to receive migration at the extraordinary levels recorded immediately after the pandemic. The latest ABS figures show that this is no longer the case.
The ABS’s dedicated Overseas Migration statistics record financial-year Net Overseas Migration of approximately 538,000 in 2022–23, 429,000 in 2023–24 and 306,000 in 2024–25. The ABS reports that the decline has been driven by fewer migrant arrivals, particularly among temporary visa holders, together with an increase in migrant departures.
The latest population estimates reinforce the same overall trend. For the 12 months ending December 2025, Australia recorded approximately 301,000 Net Overseas Migration. This was 8.9 per cent lower than the corresponding annual figure a year earlier.
The post-COVID migration spike has therefore clearly passed. The more interesting demographic question is what has happened to natural population growth during the same period.
Natural Population Growth Has Remained Comparatively Low
Natural increase measures the difference between births and deaths. Unlike migration, which has fluctuated dramatically since 2020, natural increase has remained within a comparatively narrow range.
The latest ABS series records natural increase of approximately 134,800 in 2019–20 and 139,500 during the COVID-affected 2020–21 financial year. It subsequently declined to approximately 125,400 in 2021–22 and approximately 102,900 in 2022–23. It remained at approximately 105,400 in 2023–24 before increasing modestly to approximately 112,600 in 2024–25.
This comparison is important because it demonstrates that the enormous changes in Australia’s recent population growth have not primarily been caused by changes in births and deaths. They have overwhelmingly been caused by migration.
At the height of the post-COVID migration rebound in 2022–23, more than five people were added through Net Overseas Migration for every one person added through natural increase. Even after the substantial decline in migration, the ratio during 2024–25 remained approximately 2.7 to one.
The Latest Position: 73 Per Cent of Population Growth Comes From Migration
The latest available ABS population statistics cover the 12 months ending 31 December 2025. Australia’s population reached approximately 27.8 million, having increased by approximately 412,500 people, or 1.5 per cent, over the preceding year. The composition of that growth is particularly revealing.
The significance of these numbers is difficult to ignore. Approximately three out of every four people added to Australia’s population during the latest 12-month period came through Net Overseas Migration rather than natural population growth.
Natural increase added approximately 111,500 people, while overseas migration added approximately 301,000. Migration therefore contributed approximately 2.7 people for every person added through natural increase.
Australia Is Increasingly Dependent on Migration for Population Growth
The most significant conclusion from the figures is therefore not simply that Australia experienced exceptionally high migration following COVID-19. That is already well established. The more consequential demographic story is the extent to which Australia now relies upon overseas migration to generate population growth.
The latest figures demonstrate this clearly. If Australia had recorded no Net Overseas Migration in the 12 months ending December 2025, and the other components remained unchanged, natural increase would have contributed only approximately 111,500 people to national population growth. Instead, Australia grew by approximately 412,500 people because overseas migration contributed another approximately 301,000.
This does not mean that higher migration is automatically desirable, nor does it answer the legitimate policy question of what Australia’s migration level should be. Population growth places pressure on housing, infrastructure, transport, schools, hospitals and other services, and governments must consider whether the pace and geographical distribution of population growth can be sustainably accommodated.
However, there is another side to the equation. Australia also faces an ageing population, changing workforce requirements and continuing demand for skills across important parts of the economy. If natural increase remains comparatively low, migration becomes increasingly significant not simply as a source of population growth, but as a mechanism through which Australia can influence the size, age and skills composition of its future population and workforce.
A serious discussion about migration therefore requires both sides of the population equation to be considered. Asking how many migrants Australia should receive is only part of the question. Australia must also consider how quickly its population would grow without migration and what that would mean for its future workforce and demographic structure.
Net Overseas Migration Is Not Australia’s Permanent Migration Intake
There is an important statistical distinction that must be made when interpreting these figures. Net Overseas Migration is not the same thing as the Australian Government’s permanent Migration Program.
NOM is a population measure. It measures whether people are added to or removed from Australia’s usually resident population according to the ABS migration methodology. It can therefore include temporary visa holders such as international students and skilled workers, permanent migrants and Australian citizens whose international movements satisfy the ABS residence criteria.
The permanent Migration Program, by contrast, concerns permanent visa places determined by the Australian Government. A NOM figure of approximately 301,000 therefore does not mean that Australia granted 301,000 permanent migration places.
This distinction is particularly important because temporary students represented the largest group of migrant arrivals in 2024–25, with approximately 157,000 arrivals recorded by the ABS. During that financial year, Australia recorded approximately 568,000 migrant arrivals and 263,000 migrant departures, producing NOM of approximately 306,000.
Border Arrivals Should Not Be Confused With Migration
For the same reason, raw Overseas Arrivals and Departures figures should not be presented as though every border crossing represents another migrant being added to Australia.
People travel in and out of Australia for many reasons, and the same individual can cross the border multiple times. NOM instead attempts to measure whether international movements actually result in people being added to or removed from Australia’s usually resident population.
For an analysis such as this, Net Overseas Migration is therefore the appropriate measure because the question is not how many people crossed the Australian border, but how much overseas migration actually contributed to the Australian population.
What the Numbers Really Tell Us
The period since 2020 provides an extraordinary illustration of migration’s role in modern Australia. When Australia’s borders closed, Net Overseas Migration became negative and national population growth slowed dramatically. When the borders reopened, migration rebounded to record levels before progressively falling as international movement patterns began to normalise.
The latest ABS data show that the exceptional post-pandemic surge is already substantially behind us. The ABS’s annual Overseas Migration series records NOM falling from approximately 538,000 in 2022–23 to 429,000 in 2023–24 and 306,000 in 2024–25. The latest rolling annual population estimate places NOM at approximately 301,000 in the year ending December 2025.
Natural increase has followed a very different path. Rather than surging and collapsing, it has remained comparatively modest. In the latest 12 months it contributed approximately 111,500 people, compared with approximately 301,000 from overseas migration.
That leaves Australia with an important demographic reality: even after the substantial reduction in migration from its post-COVID peak, approximately 73 per cent of Australia’s current population growth is still being generated by Net Overseas Migration.
Whether Australia should increase, maintain or further reduce migration is ultimately a matter for government and public policy. The figures themselves do not answer that question. What they do demonstrate is that any discussion about Australia’s future migration levels should recognise how heavily Australia’s population growth now depends upon migration and how comparatively little growth is currently being generated naturally.
What About 2026?
As at 28 August 2026, the latest official ABS National, State and Territory Population release covers the 12 months ending 31 December 2025. Australia does not yet have official population-component statistics covering a 12-month period ending in 2026.
That will change shortly. The ABS has scheduled its March 2026 population release for 17 September 2026, followed by the June 2026 release on 17 December 2026. Those releases will allow us to determine whether Net Overseas Migration has continued to decline during 2026 and whether the balance between migration and natural population growth has materially changed.
For now, the latest official statistics tell a clear story. Australia’s post-COVID migration surge has fallen considerably, but migration remains the dominant driver of national population growth. With natural increase contributing only around one-quarter of the latest annual population increase, the future of Australia’s migration program is also, inevitably, a discussion about the future size and composition of Australia itself.
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Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, State and Territory Population and Overseas Migration.
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